Is the artificial intelligence singularity approaching?

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There is a famous inventor and futurist in Silicon Valley, Ray Kurzweil. More than ten years ago, he put forward the concept of a technological singularity in the book “The Singularity Is Near”, which can be roughly summarized as The development is getting faster and faster, and after a certain singularity, human beings will no longer be able to understand the development of technology. The emergence of ChatGPT has advanced the discussion of the arrival of “technological singularity”. In just half a year, artificial intelligence technology has developed rapidly and iteratively.

Large models were the first to make waves. On May 28, at the “Artificial Intelligence Large Model Development Forum”, one of the parallel forums of the 2023 Zhongguancun Forum, the “China Artificial Intelligence Large Model Map Research Report” released by Zhao Zhiyun, director of the China Institute of Scientific and Technological Information, shows that currently China’s 10 79 large-scale models with parameters above 100 million have been released, mainly concentrated in Beijing and Guangdong, including 38 large-scale models in Beijing and 20 large-scale models in Guangdong.

When ChatGPT “breaks the circle” from the field of science and technology, when AI technology moves from the laboratory to the streets, it has become a social consensus that human beings are entering the era of artificial intelligence. So what kind of era the future intelligent era will be, has also aroused people’s thinking. On the Artificial Intelligence Large Model Development Forum, many people in the industry gave their answers.

Zhou Bowen, Chair Professor of Huiyan of Tsinghua University and tenured professor of the Department of Electronic Engineering:

　　AI increasingly resembles the “System 2” mode of human thinking

Compared with the previous two waves, artificial intelligence has undergone fundamental changes. First, this time artificial intelligence is driven by generative artificial intelligence. In the past, artificial intelligence was usually done by “understanding”, and did not open up the real AI road, because the judgment of understanding is vague, and the generation Second, in the past, artificial intelligence attracted widespread attention by defeating humans, but behind generative artificial intelligence, humans and AI are synergistic and interactive. The value of this breakthrough is huge. The boundary of the application, the value of the scene, etc. have all increased by an order of magnitude.

Based on these two points, I think the future AI may become more and more like “System 2” AI. Human thinking modes include System 1 and System 2. The former is mainly responsible for fast thinking, relying on intuition to make quick decisions; System 2 is slow thinking, which requires a lot of calculations and reasoning.

In the past few years, artificial intelligence such as face recognition has been the logic of System 1, but with the development of artificial intelligence, especially after the emergence of GPT-4, AI actually has the ability to be systematized, and AI based on System 2 is more clear direction. This brings us to think about how humans and AI can further cooperate and interact when AI becomes more and more powerful and can do more detailed work.

Baidu CTO Wang Haifeng:

　　Artificial intelligence is becoming the core technology of the fourth industrial revolution

There have been three industrial revolutions in human history, and it has become a general consensus that artificial intelligence is becoming the core technology of the fourth industrial revolution. Looking at every industrial revolution in the past, whether it is mechanical technology, electrical technology or information technology, these core technologies have one thing in common, that is, very strong versatility, and artificial intelligence has also demonstrated this strong versatility.

The symbolic node at which these core technologies have a huge impact on human production and life is when they begin to enter industrial production and can be applied very efficiently, thereby affecting life. At this time, the characteristics of standardization, automation and modularization will be highly apparent. The current artificial intelligence technology represented by deep learning also has these characteristics, especially the two layers of framework and model in the 4-layer technical architecture of artificial intelligence.

On the whole, the rapid development of deep learning + large model technology is pushing artificial intelligence technology into the stage of industrial mass production, which also means that it will have a huge impact on all aspects of our lives. In the future, all kinds of products and services we use in our daily life will also be based on AI. At this time, human beings must coexist and cooperate with AI.

Zhou Jingren, Chief Technology Officer of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence:

　　Everyday applications in the future will be “armed” with knowledge

What we are currently experiencing is a disruptive technological revolution. In the Internet age, all kinds of information are already within reach, but the evolution of large models and technological changes are actually based on the accumulation of human wisdom, with more transformation capabilities, such as logic and innovation capabilities. slowly emerged. With such an intelligent capability, our various current businesses will not be based on information acquisition as in the traditional way, but based on the understanding generated by information.

Our communication with people is usually very harmonious, even if the other party does not know the topic you are talking about, it will not collapse. Before large models, people were very careful when interacting with conversational robots, because if they were not careful, they would touch the boundaries of the model. The current artificial intelligence model is to develop in the direction of human intelligence in this sense. How to continuously enhance the crystallization of human knowledge and innovate is the most important thing.

What we are currently at may be a starting point. In the future, we will find that all relevant daily applications will be “armed” by knowledge, which means that knowledge can be used to effectively solve industry problems. In this process, the large model itself is will become the core element. This day will always come. In order to achieve this, the infrastructure including computing power needs to be effectively and closely integrated.

On the whole, mankind has entered a knowledge-driven era. Although it will face ethical challenges, the opportunities it faces in technology and business are worth looking forward to.

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