Can the new crown virus not spread?These are the people most affected right now, experts say

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Recently, the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention released the national epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection, showing that the infection rate of new coronavirus is on a downward trend. Experts believe that this situation is not due to changes in the virus itself, but is related to the formation of an immune barrier by previous large-scale population infections, and the spread of the virus will slow down in the short term. There may still be peaks in the later period, but the situation will not be as serious as it was at the end of last year.

Number of positive COVID-19 nucleic acid tests among the reporting population and the changing trend of the positive rate Image source: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

　Can the new crown virus not spread?

The national epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection released on the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on the 25th shows that since December 9, 2022, the number of positive nucleic acid tests and the positive rate of the reported population in various provinces have shown a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. Since December 2022, some provinces have established an application program (APP) for collecting residents’ antigen detection information, and residents can voluntarily upload antigen detection results. The results showed that the amount of antigen detection reported in each province was low, showing a gradually decreasing trend.

According to the People’s Daily Health client report on the 27th, regarding the downward trend in the infection rate of the new coronavirus, Professor Fang Bangjiang, director of the Institute of Emergency and Critical Care at Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, explained, “The spread of the new coronavirus is gradually weakening, not because of the virus itself. There are important changes, but the social aspect maintains a certain low level of transmission, which consolidates the immune barrier, and the vast majority of people are infected, forming herd immunity, and the virus is a bit ‘spread’.”

In this regard, Li Tong, chief physician of the Respiratory and Infectious Diseases Department of Beijing You’an Hospital, told Chinanews.com on the 29th that more than 80% of the population in most areas have been infected in the past two months, thus establishing an immune barrier, and the speed of virus transmission in the short term. It will slow down and the number of infections will drop.

Expert: Currently the most affected by the epidemic are those who have not yet been infected

Li Tong further stated that in the next 3 to 6 months, the level of immune protection obtained after infection will decrease, and the risk of infection will increase. If the virus continues to mutate into a mutant strain with stronger immune escape ability, the risk of reinfection will increase. The probability of a new peak will increase.

“But it won’t be as serious as the one at the end of last year.” Li Tong once pointed out that people with normal immune function will gain immunity after infection. Even if they are infected again, the risk of severe illness will be lower and the symptoms will be alleviated.

Lu Mengji, a virologist and a professor at the Institute of Virology at the University of Essen, Germany, told Chinanews.com on the 29th that referring to the situation in Germany, the number of infections will continue to be high, and the number of cases and medical treatment will be lower than before, but the number is Fluctuating.

He believes that the most affected by the epidemic is the uninfected population, estimated at 15% to 20%. Compared with the previous situation where the entire population was susceptible, the degree of impact has been reduced. However, in view of China’s population base, the scale of the people involved is still huge.

Qiao Shubin, director of the Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Department of Beijing Fengtai District Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, also believes that the epidemic has developed periodically from peak to trough, and then from trough to peak, which is in line with the law of virus development. “Like the United States and Japan, they have experienced several peaks since the new crown epidemic.” He said that under the current circumstances, it is still necessary to continue to do a good job in personal protection.

Li Tong once suggested that people who have been infected can receive a booster vaccine six months later to get better protection, especially the elderly and people with underlying diseases should give priority to getting better protection through vaccination.

CDC: Improving the ability of epidemic prediction and risk research and judgment, focusing on monitoring mutant strains

On the 29th, the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released a message. On the morning of the 17th, at the 66th regular meeting on the first-level response to the new crown virus infection, Shen Hongbing, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, emphasized that the epidemic of the new crown epidemic is not over yet, and there are still uncertainties about the mutation of the virus. All units still must attach great importance to it, especially during the Spring Festival to strengthen emergency duty.

Shen Hongbing pointed out that the next step is to further improve the central emergency response mechanism, especially the emergency conversion mechanism after the “Class B and B Management”; second, to start a series of special investigations and researches as soon as possible to provide scientific support for epidemic prevention and control; It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring work and the construction of the monitoring system, and improve the ability of epidemic prediction and risk research and judgment, especially the monitoring of virus variants.

Lu Jiang, Secretary of the Party Committee of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, also said that the current prevention and control work is under great pressure and great responsibility. It is necessary to implement the emergency response mechanism in place, and not relax in thinking, so as to ensure that it is ready to fight when it is called.

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