Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has continued to rise. In September, the price of gold jewelry once exceeded 600 yuan. Faced with the soaring gold price, people also started a “gold buying craze”.
However, gold, which has “high hopes”, has been falling continuously in recent times. As domestic gold prices continue to correct, people are also wondering, is now a good time to buy gold?
Gold prices fell, falling nearly 30 yuan in three days
On the 7th, a reporter walked into a Chow Tai Fook store in Beijing. On the gold price display, the number was fixed at 587 yuan per gram.
“In September, the price of gold jewelry reached as high as 615 yuan/gram, but it has dropped a bit recently.” A teller at the Zhou Dafu store told reporters.
Previously, the price of gold continued to rise. Out of the need for hedging and investment, many people bought gold bars and gold beans. During the National Day holiday, “Girl gave up buying a diamond ring and spent 500,000 to buy gold bars” was a hot search on Weibo.
However, investment gold prices have also declined recently. “In the past, the price of Jin Doudou could reach 560 yuan/gram, but now it is 539 yuan.” The above-mentioned teller told reporters.
Not only Chow Tai Fook, the price of gold jewelry from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang has also dropped recently, with a decrease of more than 10 yuan per gram compared to mid-September. In addition, the investment gold price of Caibai has also fluctuated greatly. In September, the investment gold bar price in its stores reached a maximum of about 480 yuan per gram. On October 7, the basic investment gold price dropped to 444 yuan.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange is a national market engaged in gold trading. Its Au99.99 market trend chart shows that the price of gold, which had continued to rise before, has continued to fall since September 26, closing at 447.50 yuan on September 28, a drop of nearly 30 yuan in just three days.
In addition to the decline in domestic gold prices, reporters have noticed that international gold prices, which have been fluctuating and falling since May, have fallen particularly violently recently.
From September 25 to October 5, the price of gold futures in New York fell for 9 consecutive trading days, hitting a new low in nearly 7 months. However, on October 6, the price of gold futures in New York rebounded, closing at $1,847 per ounce.
Why is the price of gold falling continuously?
Regarding the recent continued decline in domestic gold prices, relevant industry insiders analyzed to reporters that this is mainly due to changes in supply, demand and liquidity, coupled with factors such as rising US stock indexes and falling international gold prices.
From the perspective of international gold trends, in the first half of the year, the risk aversion triggered by the U.S. banking crisis and the U.S. government debt ceiling crisis pushed investors into the gold market, and international gold prices rose sharply.
“However, the recent economic data released by the United States are relatively stable, and concerns about the U.S. economy falling into recession have been temporarily alleviated, and the support effect of risk aversion on gold prices has weakened.” Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes.
“On the other hand, due to factors such as the Federal Reserve’s rising interest rate hike expectations in November and the intensified budget spending game of the U.S. government in the new fiscal year, U.S. bond yields have risen sharply recently.” Wang Youxin said that the rise in U.S. bond yields means holding The opportunity cost of gold has increased, and the two have basically been negatively correlated in the past. The US dollar is the main pricing currency for international gold, and the appreciation of the US dollar has also restrained the price trend of gold.
Some time ago, due to factors such as strong consumer demand, a lower RMB, and risk aversion, domestic gold prices continued to rise, deviating from the trend of international gold prices.
“However, under the influence of factors such as the continued decline in international gold prices, the steady recovery of the domestic economy, and improving market sentiment, domestic gold prices have gradually converged towards international gold prices.” Wang Youxin analyzed to reporters.
Can I still buy gold now?
Since the beginning of this year, against the background of rising gold prices, the market has ushered in a rush to buy gold.
“The bank’s low interest rates and the mentality of ‘buying up, not buying down’ have given rise to people’s enthusiasm for buying gold.” Previously, a Chow Tai Fook teller had mentioned.
Has the recent drop in gold prices affected people’s enthusiasm for buying gold? In this regard, Caibai told reporters that a series of consumption promotion activities during the “Double Festival” promoted the continuation of high prosperity and achieved hot sales of gold.
Consumption data from an e-commerce platform also shows that during this year’s National Day, sales of gold necklaces (that is, a series of necklaces, earrings and bracelets) increased by 892% year-on-year (from September 29 to October 1, the amount was 10% year-on-year compared to the same period last year). Three days before the holiday), investment gold consumption increased by 772%, and baby gold jewelry increased by 52%.
Judging from the data, people’s enthusiasm for gold consumption is still there. At the same time, many people are also concerned about whether the price of gold will continue to fall. Can they still buy it now? Some people are also looking forward to whether the price of gold can fall back to the prefix “4” so that they can buy it again.
In this regard, Wang Youxin believes that judging from the follow-up trend, there is a high probability that international gold prices will remain under pressure at least before the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in November. “Currently, with the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data, the market has begun to speculate on the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November, and international gold prices will continue to be suppressed.”
“But at the same time, downside risks to the global economy are also accumulating at a faster pace, and risk aversion may heat up again in the future, thus once again supporting international gold prices.” Wang Youxin said.