High-end, market expansion, long-term foreign trade has confidence

According to data from the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, the total value of my country’s import and export of goods trade in the first seven months of this year was 23.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Lu Daliang, director of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that this data is in line with expectations, and the fundamentals of the long-term improvement of my country’s foreign trade have not changed.

Data show that since the second quarter, my country’s monthly import and export scale has remained stable at more than 3.4 trillion yuan. In July, my country’s import and export reached 3.46 trillion yuan, which was at a relatively high level in the same period in history. Compared with the same period in 2019, it has increased by 25.7%, and is 4.5% higher than the average for the same period in 2020-2022. On the whole, my country’s foreign trade import and export is running smoothly.

The data also shows that in the first seven months, my country’s exports were 13.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; imports were 10.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%; the trade surplus was 3.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%.

Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Head of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said that trade price factors have a more obvious impact on exports and imports. The impact of factors such as the contraction in global trade demand on China’s foreign trade is expected to continue to appear in the next few months.

Peng Bo, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that despite various difficulties, there are still many favorable factors and great potential in the current development of China’s import and export.

According to Peng Bo’s analysis, first of all, the general trend of China’s industry leaping to the high end of the global value chain is unshakable. Judging from the data, the proportion of imports and exports in general trade has increased. In the first 7 months, the proportion of my country’s general trade import and export increased by 1.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of processing trade decreased; the import and export of domestic-funded enterprises maintained growth, and the endogenous power of foreign trade continued to increase; the export of mechanical and electrical products and “three new products” increased. reflect this trend. “These are the greatest confidence for the steady growth of China’s foreign trade.”

In addition, my country’s diversified and stable economic and trade relations continue to expand. ASEAN is my country’s largest trading partner. In the first seven months, the total trade value between my country and ASEAN was 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, accounting for 15.3% of China’s total foreign trade value. During the same period, my country’s imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” totaled 8.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; imports and exports to the five Central Asian countries increased by 35%, maintaining a rapid growth trend; exports to Latin America and Africa increased by 5.5% and 7.4% respectively .

This is inseparable from the continuous expansion of the foreign trade “friend circle”. In June this year, the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement” (RCEP) came into full effect for the 10 ASEAN countries and 15 member countries including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, marking the world’s largest population, largest economic and trade scale, and most developed The potential free trade zone has entered a new stage of full implementation.

According to analysis by industry insiders, RCEP superimposes the bilateral free trade agreements that have already taken effect between my country and other RCEP members, creating favorable conditions for enterprises to enjoy better benefits, helping enterprises reduce trade costs, and bringing tangible dividends and benefits to enterprises.

my country is still deepening multilateral and bilateral cooperation, including expanding the network of high-standard free trade areas facing the world, promoting the construction of the “Belt and Road” in depth and solidity, and comprehensively launching China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations.

According to Xu Yingming, director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, these will provide more opportunities for Chinese companies to expand their markets. “With the continuous release of RCEP benefits and the deepening and solid implementation of the ‘Belt and Road’ construction, RCEP member countries, countries along the ‘Belt and Road’, and ASEAN countries will become growth points for my country’s foreign trade development, and are expected to continue to grow in the future.”

The data also confirmed this trend. Statistics from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade show that in the first half of this year, the national trade promotion system RCEP certificate of origin visa value totaled US$3.324 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.47%; the number of visas totaled 96,000, a year-on-year increase of 69.49%.

Sun Xiao, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said at a recent press conference that the steady increase in the number of RCEP certificates and visas shows that foreign trade companies are more enthusiastic about using RCEP. point. At the same time, there are also favorable factors such as the rapid development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce.

Further strengthening these new growth points has become an important force for stabilizing foreign trade. The Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and other relevant departments and institutions stated that they will deepen cooperation and guide cross-border e-commerce from accelerating visa processing, resuming and increasing flights on international routes, further improving the level of trade facilitation, and optimizing the business environment at ports. Measures have been introduced in terms of brand cultivation and standard building, trying to help companies cope with challenges such as weak international market demand, and fully promoting the stability and quality of my country’s foreign trade.

The local government is also actively organizing foreign trade enterprises to “go out”, “invite in” overseas customers, and continue to increase efforts to develop overseas markets and support new business models and models. For example, Guangdong organizes a series of “Guangdong Trade Global” exhibitions and organizes economic and trade delegations to participate in exhibitions and promotions around the world; Zhejiang continues to increase support for business personnel entering and exiting overseas exhibitions, overseas marketing, procurement in Zhejiang, and overseas investment; Guangxi encourages Enterprises participate in overseas exhibitions, and prepare and organize activities such as the 2023 China Guangxi Commodities Expo and the “Gui Pin” overseas station in Japan.

With the support of policies, the confidence of foreign trade enterprises has increased. Recently, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade conducted in-depth research on more than 3,100 foreign trade companies. According to the survey data, 75.1% of foreign trade companies expressed “stable confidence” and “relatively confident” in the development of the third quarter of 2023.

When asked about “the current favorable factors for the production and operation of foreign trade enterprises”, 57.2% of foreign trade enterprises chose “overseas customers have been stable”, and 55.5% of foreign trade enterprises chose “the national policy of stabilizing foreign trade is effective, and the support of local governments is strong”.

Looking forward to the future, Sun Xiao said that he believes that with the overall recovery of my country’s economic operation and more practical and effective policy measures taking effect, the team of foreign trade enterprises will surely grow stronger and their vitality will be further enhanced.

Pang Ming also said, “Under the combined effect of a package of measures to support and counter-cyclical policies, it is expected that the growth of imports will still be more resilient than exports in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment can be fully stabilized.” He also pointed out that free trade The pilot zone and the free trade port are in line with the international high-standard economic and trade rules, and the first trial is carried out in more fields. It is also expected to further expand the overall incremental space and structural optimization space while stabilizing the basic stock market.

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